A Really, Really Bad Idea

Good Morning. Each of the past three days, I've stumbled into my office at around 5:00 am anxious to see if the futures had succumbed to some big, bad event overnight. Stocks have enjoyed a nice run of late and as such, have become overbought. Thus, the bear argument that the indices are currently ripe for a correction kept ringing in my ears. Although there have been issues with Chinese data, concerns about the Yen, and more data from across the pond than I can shake a stick at, each and every morning I was greeted with green screens in the wee hours. Each and every day then, I have expected to see the bulls produce some follow-through and for the market to finish higher. However, each and every day this week has ended in modest disappointment as the early gains have given way to program selling (btw, is there any other kind of selling anymore?) as the days wore on.

Sure, I understand that traders have been waiting on the data... and the Fed... and then some more data this week. And no, I personally haven't put much new money to work either as waiting patiently for the new-and-improved GDP report and the FOMC announcement seemed like the prudent thing to do.  And now that the all-important jobs report is just 24 hours away, I guess waiting for that makes sense too. Thus, the fact that the S&P closed Wednesday 0.40 above Monday's close shouldn't be too terribly surprising.

However, the bears don't see this week's action as traders simply playing a waiting game and keeping prices around what appears to be (well, to me anyway) an equilibrium point. No, my furry have friends informed me, in no uncertain terms, that the action is bad. No, make that, very ...

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Conversations From The Halls

Good Morning. While it is probably a safe bet that there aren't more than a handful of readers who noticed that I've been M.I.A. the last few mornings, I feel obliged to explain my absence. In short, I had a ...

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Learning To Say, "It's Not What I Do"

Good Morning. First off, I'd like to thank all of you that took the time to communicate your thoughts on our Global Macro series. Your kind words were sincerely appreciated. And since the responses were unanimously positive, we will make ...

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The Macro View From 30,000 Feet - Part III

Good Morning. With stocks in an uptrend at the present time and nothing much new to report, we're going to finish up what will now become at the very least a bimonthly review of the global macro picture. This morning ...

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The Macro View From 30,000 Feet - Part II

Good Morning. Our best guess is that the U.S. stock market is continuing to recover from the "tapering = tightening" freak-out that occurred from 6/19 through 6/24. Some will argue that stocks cannot survive rising rates for long while others ...

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The Macro View From 30,000 Feet

Good Morning. As I have stated a time or two, I am not a deep-thinking, macro-driven investor. No, I prefer to keep things simple and try to stay in tune with the overall market environment. Our goal is to try ...

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I'd Like a "V" Please

Good Morning. With stocks having finished higher for three consecutive sessions and the Dow having spiked nearly 475 points since Monday's low, it is fair to say that the bulls are at least back in the game. However, before we ...

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Action Speaks Louder Than Words

Good Morning. Are we having fun yet? For a seventh consecutive day, stocks were whipped around in a violent fashion by the big boys and their computer toys yesterday. The Dow once again put up a triple-digit move, this time ...

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The Price of 'Perfection'

Good Morning. The title of this morning's missive is "The Price of Perfection." The first point that needs to be made is that using the word "perfection" in anything related to the stock market may get me in trouble with ...

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Looking For The Line In The Sand

Good Morning. The price action of the past two and one-half weeks makes it clear that stocks have entered a correctional phase of some sort. The next logical question, of course, becomes how low will the pullback go? There are ...

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Don't Fear The Taper

Good Morning. Stocks have been see-sawing back and forth a fair amount lately and realistically, the short-term trend can't be rated any better than moderately negative right now. And after a strong rally that marched relentlessly higher for six straight ...

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What's Your Sell Strategy Going To Be?

Good Morning. It is said that the definition of investing genius involves a short memory and a bull market. As such, anyone who has been long the stock market to any degree recently is probably feeling pretty smart right about ...

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