In the first installment of "The 13 Things Investors Learned in 2013," we explored the fact that the U.S. stock market was the best/only place to be this year. We talked about the idea that the periodic crisis-driven dives that had plagued the market for the previous four years failed to materialize this year as "no new crisis meant no meaningful correction." Then we touched on how sentiment had become incredibly lopsided at the start of 2013. And finally, we talked about the current role of HFT in the stock market game.
But before we launch into the second installment of lessons learned, it is probably a good idea to reiterate what investors might face in 2014.
First, it is probably a very good idea to enter 2014 with an open mind and your risk-management tools at the ready as the historical cycles are calling for a substantial decline in the first half of the year. So, while the asset allocators may make January another fun month for stocks, one shouldn't expect 2014 to be a replay 2013.
However, since using a crystal ball isn't always the best way to play this game, let's continue to look back at 2013 and the lessons that investors should have learned.
5. The Macro Guys Got It Wrong – AGAIN
One of the biggest mistakes investors made in 2013 was to fall in love with the idea that the macro view drives stock prices. With Europe's debt crisis showing no real signs of improvement and the folks in Washington continuing to act like children, the macro crowd decided that the crisis play book would continue to work in 2013. Boy, were they wrong.
The big lesson here is that the macro view doesn't always drive stock prices. Yes, it is true that economics ...