13 Things We Learned in 2013 - Part II

In the first installment of "The 13 Things Investors Learned in 2013," we explored the fact that the U.S. stock market was the best/only place to be this year. We talked about the idea that the periodic crisis-driven dives that had plagued the market for the previous four years failed to materialize this year as "no new crisis meant no meaningful correction." Then we touched on how sentiment had become incredibly lopsided at the start of 2013. And finally, we talked about the current role of HFT in the stock market game.

But before we launch into the second installment of lessons learned, it is probably a good idea to reiterate what investors might face in 2014.

First, it is probably a very good idea to enter 2014 with an open mind and your risk-management tools at the ready as the historical cycles are calling for a substantial decline in the first half of the year. So, while the asset allocators may make January another fun month for stocks, one shouldn't expect 2014 to be a replay 2013.

However, since using a crystal ball isn't always the best way to play this game, let's continue to look back at 2013 and the lessons that investors should have learned.

5. The Macro Guys Got It Wrong – AGAIN

One of the biggest mistakes investors made in 2013 was to fall in love with the idea that the macro view drives stock prices. With Europe's debt crisis showing no real signs of improvement and the folks in Washington continuing to act like children, the macro crowd decided that the crisis play book would continue to work in 2013. Boy, were they wrong.

The big lesson here is that the macro view doesn't always drive stock prices. Yes, it is true that economics ...

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13 Things We Learned in 2013

The big, bad Fed announcement is out of the way. Lawmakers in D.C. decided not to act like children this Holiday Season. The U.S. economy grew at a 4.1 percent clip in the third quarter. Corporate profits are at all-time ...

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2014 Planning: Buy Signals To Watch For

To be sure, the Fed's decision to begin tapering their QE program remains the topic of conversation around water coolers in Manhattan, Chicago and LA. In short, nobody really expected Ben Bernanke to start cutting back on one of his ...

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Lesson From The Fed: ZIRP Trumps Taper

For weeks, the question of whether or not the Fed would begin tapering their QE program was the focus of the stock market. After each and every economic report, the issue was always the same: Was good news bad for ...

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2014 Planning: Two Sell Signals to Watch For

In looking ahead to the New Year, a great many investors will be trying to avoid the big mistake of 2013: missing out on the gains available in the U.S. stock market. You see, even with the recent "sloppy period," ...

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2014: What's The Plan, Stan?

This is the time of year when investors tend to take stock of their efforts over the past twelve months. Investors big and small look back on the year that was and try to determine what went right, what went ...

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The Bear Case: Are Stocks Over Owned?

On Friday, we acknowledged the idea that, according to the bear camp, the U.S. stock market is overbought, overvalued, over owned, and over exuberant. We reviewed the argument that stock market sentiment has indeed become a bit "over exuberant" and ...

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Are Stocks Overbought, Overvalued, Over Owned, and Over Exuberant?

One of the arguments emanating from the bear camp is that the U.S. stock market is overbought, overvalued, over owned, and over exuberant. And as you might surmise, those seeing the glass as at least half empty contend that such ...

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"Dangerous But Necessary"

As we've discussed a time or twenty, the primary objective of this oftentimes meandering morning market missive is to identify and understand the "drivers" of the market action. At times this task is child's play. A piece of economic news ...

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Missed Big Gains in 2013? Look Before You Leap!

To be sure, it has been an interesting year in the stock market. At the beginning of the year, almost no one saw gains of 20 to 30 percent for the stock market indices and most macro players continued to ...

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The Quiet Period Has Finally Arrived

In case you've been out at the malls and haven't had time to keep up with the goings on in the stock market, it is safe to say that "taper talk" has been all the rage of late. Whenever a ...

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Goldilocks Lives!

To be sure, the game has become a bit confusing of late. For example, one minute the "good news is bad news" theme is the driver to the action and the next, well, not so much. And for those investors ...

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