A Plan For The Next Big, Bad Bear

Stocks were hammered again on Monday as the momentum names continue to be punished. The question of the day, of course, is if the huge declines seen recently in names like Amazon.com, Tesla, Twitter, and Yelp will cause the "meaningful correction" in the broad market indices that just about everybody on the planet is looking for.

Frankly, I don't know the answer to this question. I can say that there doesn't appear to be a fundamental driver for the current shellacking, other than some high flying stocks coming back down to earth, that is. My personal view is that either this decline, which for the record, finished its second day on Monday, becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy and people decided to panic out of stocks, or... this ends pretty quickly. But, the bottom line is that this is merely one man's opinion.

We could spend the rest of our pixels this morning making predictions about what is likely to happen next. But, since we prefer to play the hand that has been dealt instead of guessing what might come next, I thought it might be a good time to make good on my promise to offer up an idea or two on how to get the really big moves in the market right (and no, a decline of 2.5 percent does NOT qualify as such).

Getting the BIG Moves Right

Late last week, we discussed the importance of getting the really big, really important moves in the stock market right. We looked at the past 20 years and found that investors would have made a pretty penny staying invested in the stock market. In fact, from 6/1/1994 through the beginning of April, a buy-and-hope investor in the S&P 500 cash index would have made +325.14 percent.

We went on to note ...

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A Plan For The Next Big, Bad Bear

Stocks were hammered again on Monday as the momentum names continue to be punished. The question of the day, of course, is if the huge declines seen recently in names like Amazon.com, Tesla, Twitter, and Yelp will cause the "meaningful ...

Read More
Comments

Mo-Mo Is Suddenly A No-No

The timing of Friday's dance to the downside, which seemingly came out of nowhere, was a bit eerie. No sooner had we penned a piece talking about the need to have a plan of action the next time the bears ...

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Are You Ready For The Bears To Return?

It is said that those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it. To be accurate, it was George Santayana (a Spanish philosopher who lived from 1863 - 1952) who actually said, "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned ...

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Are You Ready For The Bears To Return?

It is said that those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it. To be accurate, it was George Santayana (a Spanish philosopher who lived from 1863 - 1952) who actually said, "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned ...

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Comments

What Do the Cycles Say About April 2014?

Stocks apparently broke out of what had been a fairly painful trading range on Tuesday as the S&P 500 pushed above both the old intraday and closing highs. Of course, the bears will argue that the move was unconvincing and that ...

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A Tale of Two Headlines

After twenty trading days, the U.S. stock market (as defined by the S&P 500) has moved a whopping point and a half. Yippee.

During those twenty days though - a span that encompassed all but one session for the month ...

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A Sell Signal To Watch For

In our last missive entitled A VIX Buy Signal Worth Watching, we reviewed an actionable buy signal using the VIX that is (a) easy to follow and (b) has proved its ability to put the odds in your favor ...

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A Sell Signal To Watch For

In our last missive entitled A VIX Buy Signal Worth Watching, we reviewed an actionable buy signal using the VIX that is (a) easy to follow and (b) has proved its ability to put the odds in your favor ...

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Sneak Peek: The Daily Decision for 3/25/14

Below is a "sneak peek" at the Daily Decision service, our take on the current market environment, and how we are playing this market.



Today's Decision: Hold Long Positions

Strategy Update:
Our Market Environment Model is Positive this morning. Therefore, ...
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A VIX Buy Signal Worth Watching

Before we were so rudely interrupted by all the hullabaloo surrounding Ms. Yellen's definition of a "considerable" amount of time (now known to be six months), we were looking at how the VIX could be used to help identify decent ...

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Of Dot Plots and Definitions

On Wednesday, the question of the day was a bit of a head scratcher. You see, after listening intently to first the FOMC statement and then the ensuing press conference, the question on investors' minds was, when a change is ...

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