In a recent missive (Can The Market Survive the Mo-Mo Meltdown?) we noted that momentum meltdowns don't necessarily lead to serious declines in the blue-chip indices. We looked back at history and found that there have been times (5 to be exact) where the Dow and S&P weren't dragged down when the music stopped in the mo-mo names.
In fact, there have even been times where the S&P moved higher while the momentum meltdown was occurring. However, the key takeaway from our look at past mo-mo meltdowns was that the damage in the high fliers often leads to a deterioration in investor sentiment, which, historically, has led to longer periods of "sloppy" or corrective action.
Therefore, the primary question of the day is whether or not the S&P 500 and the DJIA will be able to ignore the severe corrective action that has taken place in the biotech, internet, and social media names. Will the broad market just ignore the carnage in the micro caps and march merrily higher? Or will the sloppy action cause investors to lose confidence and eventually head for the exits en masse?
So Far So Good, Right?
The S&P 500 closed Thursday about 5 points (or 0.26 percent) from the recent all-time high set on May 13th. As such, the bulls argue that the meaningful correction that almost everyone on the planet has been looking for, doesn't appear to be happening. And if the market hasn't tanked during the much ballyhooed "Sell in May" period this year, well, the thinking is that maybe there won't be a correction after all in the near-term.
However, the key to the bull case would seem to be the momentum names. IF (note the use of capital letters) the worst of the selloff is behind us and ...