Paul Schatz is filling in for Dave M. this morning. Without further ado, here is Paul's take on the current "state of the markets."
2014 may be young, but so far, it’s exhibiting a very different character than 2013 with the rate of ascent completely flat lining and the high flying leaders hit very hard. In other words, the year has been digesting as I wrote about in the "2014 Fearless Forecast." Don’t get me wrong, just because I forecast this type of action doesn’t mean it has been an easy year to make money. It hasn’t. And I don’t think that changes just yet.
I am going to discuss the five major U.S. indices and see what we can glean from the action in 2014. Remember, the healthiest markets have all five indices in sync, meaning they should all make highs at the same time.
The Dow Jones Industrials are first and you can see highs in March and April with essentially equal lows during the same months. After today, the Dow is within striking distance of all time highs, a positive sign.
The S&P saw a higher high in April than March, but a lower low as well, making it stronger and weaker than the Dow.
The S&P 400 Mid Cap Index is below and while it shows similarities to the S&P 500, it is now exhibiting a series of lower lows as seen twice in March and once in April. As such, it is also farther away from all time highs than the other two indices.
The Russell 2000 is next and here you can see a very different pattern. From the last significant low in 2012, this index has led the market higher almost the entire time through early March 2014. Since that time, we see a series of lower highs and much lower lows. Not only is the Russell no longer the leading index, but it’s action is anything but positive and certainly warning of something on the horizon. For full disclosure, some of our programs took a position here at the lows last week since it was overly stretched to the downside and the odds a short-term snapback.
The technology laden NASDAQ 100 is the last major index to show and looks very similar to the Russell 2000 except it has already retraced the entire February to early March rally. Neither index is anywhere near all time highs and both need to be watched closely.
The S&P 500 is next and the chart looks very similar, to the Dow above. If I were doing a full "Canaries in the Coal Mine" piece, the above comments would be collectively labeled a dead canary and certainly disconcerting for the long-term health of the bull market. However, the canary can certainly be revived if all major indices get back in gear to the upside later this quarter or over the summer.
In the short-term, contrary to what may be reported, it will not be a positive sign to see yet another high in the Dow and/or S&P 500 without the other major indices confirming that celebration. Until proven otherwise, the higher beta (read weaker) indices are now best viewed as sales into rallies than anything else.
Looking For Money Management Help?
If you are looking for help with money management, check out Heritage Capital Management's Active Risk Manager Service - or call Heritage for more information at (630) 250-4700.
ALL NEW: The Next Generation of the Daily Decision system is now available to clients of Heritage Capital. The upgraded system utilizes swing trading and mean reversion strategies during neutral market environments, multiple indices for long positions, incremental moves in and out of the market, multiple managers and multiple strategies - with the overall goal being reduced volatility, fewer and less impactful whipsaws, and a "smoother ride".
To learn more about the "Next Generation" system, Read the Research Report
Looking For Guidance in the Markets?
The Daily Decision: If you want a disciplined approach to managing stock market risk on a daily basis - Check the "Daily Decision" System. Forget the fast money and the latest, greatest option trade. Investors first need is a strategy to keep them "in" the stock market during bull markets and on the sidelines (or short) during bear markets. The Daily Decision system was up 30.3% in 2012, is up more than 25% in 2013, and the system sports an average compound rate of return of more than 30% per year.
The Insiders Portfolio: If you are looking for a truly unique approach to stock picking - Check out The Insiders Portfolio. We buy what those who know their company's best are buying - but ONLY when they are buying heavily! P.S. The Insiders is up over 30% in 2013 and has nearly doubled the S&P 500 since 2009.
The IRA/401K Advisor: Stop ignoring your 401K! Our long-term oriented service designed for IRAs and 401Ks strives to keep accounts positioned on the right side of the markets. This is a service you really can't afford not to use.
All StateoftheMarkets.com Premium Services include a 30-day money-back guarantee!
Turning To This Morning...
Tensions in Russia/Ukraine continued over the weekend. However, given that the situation did not spiral out of control, those traders who removed exposure on Friday due to fear over weekend headline risk appear to be putting exposure back on and/or covering shorts. In addition, the mega-bid by Pfizer for AstraZeneca ($100 Billion) as well as other M&A activity seems to be keeping the mood buoyant in the early going. Overnight markets saw declines in Asia but green screens across Europe. U.S. futures are also pointing to a strong open on Wall Street.
Pre-Game Indicators
Here are the Pre-Market indicators we review each morning before the opening bell...
Major Foreign Markets:
- Japan: -0.98%
- Hong Kong: -0.41%
- Shanghai: -1.65%
- London: +0.42%
- Germany: +0.81%
- France: +0.51%
- Italy: +0.54%
- Spain: +0.43%
Crude Oil Futures: +$0.58 to $101.18
Gold: +$0.50 at $1301.30
Dollar: lower against the yen, euro and pound
10-Year Bond Yield: Currently trading higher at 2.689%
Stock Futures Ahead of Open in U.S. (relative to fair value):
- S&P 500: +9.75
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: +93
- NASDAQ Composite: +20.70
Thought For The Day...
"The more we allow expectations to drive us, the further we push our potential away." Yehuda Berg
Are you getting all the market research you need?
Remember, you can receive email alerts for more than 20 free research report alerts from StateoftheMarkets.com including:
Our Mission Statement:
At StateoftheMarkets.com, our goal is to provide everything you need to be a more successful investor: The must-read headlines, market commentary, market research, stock analysis, proprietary risk management models, and most importantly – actionable portfolios with live trade alerts.
Finally, we are here to help - so don't hesitate to call with questions, comments, or ideas at 1-877-440-9464.
Follow on Twitter: @StateDave
The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are those of Mr. David Moenning and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning’s opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors of StateoftheMarkets.com and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. One should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.