2014: Deja Vu All Over Again?

If the stock market action thus far in 2014 has made you a little uneasy, you are not alone. If you find yourself wanting to beat your head against the door, don't fret, you've got company. And if you are spending an inordinate amount of time yelling at your screens, don't despair - the guy next to you is probably doing the exact same thing.

Sandwiched in between the Jan/Feb's -5.76 percent decline in the S&P 500 and the more recent thrashing of the momentum stocks (which produced a decline of -8.22 percent in the NASDAQ and -8.07 percent on the Russell 2000), has been a great deal of frustrating, range-bound, sideways movement this year.

In fact, of the 16 weeks that will have been completed in 2014 when the closing bell rings today, at least 10 have been largely east-west affairs. But mind you, these are not simply sideways markets. No, this is sideways with a dash of volatility mixed in - so as to drive everyone completely batty!

The overly simplistic chart of the S&P 500 below makes the point quite clear.

2013 Gains Being Digested

Some analysts suggest that the strong move up in 2013 wound up "pulling forward" some gains that rightfully belonged to the current calendar year. The thinking iss that with everyone looking to better days ahead - especially near the end of last year - the buying simply got out of hand. As a consequence, the action in 2014 can be considered a digestion or consolidation phase.

Ok, that certainly makes some sense. Then when one considers that we've already been exposed to at least two possible "crises" (the emerging market currency crisis and the Russia/Ukraine geopolitical crisis) and a rather severe correction in the mo-mo names, well, it's a wonder that the ...

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Bears Got It Wrong Again (On Bonds)

As I may have mentioned a time or twenty, I'm not a big fan of basing investment decisions on one's "macro view." Such an approach would appear to be anchored in logic. The first step is to establish your macro ...

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Bears Got It Wrong Again (On Bonds)

As I may have mentioned a time or twenty, I'm not a big fan of basing investment decisions on one's "macro view." Such an approach would appear to be anchored in logic. The first step is to establish your macro ...

Read More
Comments

The Cycles Say "Beware!" (Or Do They?)

Raise your hand if you find yourself longing for the good 'ol days of 2013 right about now. You remember, right? The days when stocks marched merrily higher on the back of an improving economy, record earnings and a Fed ...

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The Cycles Say "Beware!" (Or Do They?)

Raise your hand if you find yourself longing for the good 'ol days of 2013 right about now. You remember, right? The days when stocks marched merrily higher on the back of an improving economy, record earnings and a Fed ...

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Free Money Trumps Valuations Issues

The stock market in 2014 has been challenging (for both sides) to say the least. However, the action of the last two days has been especially crazy. And while this market can and often does turn on a dime, we ...

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Is It 'Time' For a Major Correction?

This report is being written on Sunday, April 13 and is slated to be published on Tuesday, April 15. As such, there will be ample time for the algos to "go the other way" and make the subject matter about ...

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Comments

Is It 'Time' For a Major Correction?

This report is being written on Sunday, April 13 and is slated to be published on Tuesday, April 15. As such, there will be ample time for the algos to "go the other way" and make the subject matter about ...

Read More
Comments

No Crisis, No News and No Rumors

For the past 7-8 years, every meaningful decline in the stock market has been accompanied by a crisis, a headline, a rumor, etc. However, this time around, there is no crisis. There is no war, no news, no geopolitical tensions, ...

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Like Janet Said, We Can Stop Worrying About the Dots

If the current state of the market causes you to scratch your head a bit, rest assured that you are not alone.

Six days ago, the S&P 500 finished at an all-time high. Five days ago, both the S&P and ...

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A Better Plan For The Next Big, Bad Bear

With the blood-letting taking a break yesterday, we thought today would be a good time to continue exploring a simple, yet effective, trend-following system designed to keep investors on the right side of the market's really big, really important moves. ...

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Comments

A Better Plan For The Next Big, Bad Bear

With the blood-letting taking a break yesterday, we thought today would be a good time to continue exploring a simple, yet effective, trend-following system designed to keep investors on the right side of the market's really big, really important moves. ...

Read More
Comments