Bonds May Hold The Key

The good news is that despite all the worry about earnings and the teeth gnashing about the recent spate of punk economic data, the S&P 500 is hitting fresh, new all-time highs again. The bad news is that, as has been the modus operandi of late, the moves to new highs have all displayed a distinct lack of momentum and as such, have been deemed unconvincing at best. And unfortunately, this doesn't bode well for those looking for stocks to embark on a new leg higher.

Last week's effort was effectively a case of "same 'ol, same 'ol." Once again, the S&P hit a couple new highs. And for those keeping score at home, it is important to note that the index actually finished at fresh new highs not once, not twice, but a total of three times last week. But alas, the venerable SPX only managed to exceed the previous record high by a total of 9.7 points - or less than 0.46%. Yippee.

As our furry friends in the bear camp are quick to point out, this is simply not good "pin action" as there is just no "oomph" behind the move. Enjoy the headlines touting the record highs, we're told, "Because this ain't gonna end well."

S&P 500 Index - Daily

View Larger Image

Thus, the key issue from a near-term technical perspective remains whether the major indices will be able to break free from the trading range that has been intact for months - or if the recent highs will set up yet another "breakout fake out" trade to the downside.

Do Bonds Hold the Key?

While we wait, investors should note that bond yields continue to attract a fair amount of attention. After the yield on the 10-year Treasury Note spiked from 1.85% to nearly ...

Read More
Comments

American Pharaoh Taking Things To New Heights?

Dave M. is under the weather and Paul Schatz of Heritage Capital, LLC is filling in again this morning. We are pleased to be able to offer Paul's thoughts on the state of the market and hope that you enjoy ...

Read More
Comments

A Forward Look at the Economy

This morning's "Daily State" report was penned by Robert Barone (Ph.D., Economics, Georgetown University), a Principal of Universal Value Advisors (UVA) based in Reno, Nevada and a fellow Investment Committee member with Dave Moenning at CONCERT Wealth Management. We are ...

Read More
Comments

Will the 15th Time Be the Charm?

Well, here we go again. Once again, the S&P 500 finished at what amounted to a fractional new all-time high on Thursday. And once again, the venerable index did not produce a convincing break above the top end of the ...

Read More
Comments

It's a Bull Market Until Proven Otherwise

From a long-term perspective, it is worth noting that the current advance in the S&P 500 is now the 2nd longest period in history without a 10% correction and the 3rd longest (but only by a hair) without a 20% ...

Read More
Comments

Trend Challenged

With the market having been trend-challenged for quite some time now, one of the things I'm doing in order to try and keep things in perspective is force myself to look at the market from different time frames. But before ...

Read More
Comments

All Eyes On Global Interest Rates

The big stories in the market at the present time are the recent backup in global interest rates and Janet Yellen's "Irrational Exuberance" moment last week. First, the Fed Chairwoman mentioned in a speech last week that stocks valuations are ...

Read More
Comments

Five Ways To Play The New, New Normal Market

As I mentioned last time, I have had a fair amount of time to think about the state of the markets over the last week and a half. My travels first took me from Colorado to Des Moines by car ...

Read More
Comments

Pondering a Change in the Market Landscape

As I have been traveling by car and planes from Colorado to Des Moines, IA for my youngest daughter's college graduation and then on to Newport Beach, CA for the NAAIM (National Association of Active Investment Managers) annual conference, I ...

Read More
Comments

Is This The New, New Normal?

The question of the day is if Thursday's decline, which seemed to lack any real catalyst, was the start of something meaningful or just another in a long string of pullbacks seen since the beginning of December. And for those ...

Read More
Comments

Just The Way The Game Is Being Played

There can be no denying that intraday volatility has been "a thing" during the vast majority of 2015's trading sessions. And while all too often there is nary a catalyst to be found, this was most certainly not the case ...

Read More
Comments

What's the Takeaway?

With the end of the month approach and the stock market acting a little strange lately, I thought it might be a good time to step back from the blinking screens and do an overview of the market using different ...

Read More
Comments