There Is Not a Bubble in the U.S. Stock Market, But...

One of my personal pet peeves about market pundits these days is the preponderance of bubbles being sighted. Nary a day goes by where you don't see an article on the major financial sites about a bubble in this or a bubble in that. The problem is that almost by definition, when a bubble is forming, nobody sees it.

Think back to the heady days of early 2000. Do you recall an uproar about the new metrics analysts were devising to tell us that valuations in dot.com stocks (price-to-eyeballs was a thing) weren't a problem? Lest we forget, Mr. Jim Cramer was busy telling anyone that would listen to buy baskets of technology stocks - that way you wouldn't miss out when one exploded to the upside!

Then there was the housing bubble. Yes, John Paulson did indeed get that one right. But if you will remember, he was VERY early and nearly went bankrupt trying to play the short side of the housing game. (Thank goodness Goldman Sachs came to his rescue and built all those securities designed to fail for him!) And here's a question, did you or anyone you know raise a stink about the value of your homes persistently rising over that 3-4 year period?

In case it isn't obvious, the point is that there weren't websites filled with warnings during either of those bubbles. Yes fans, THOSE were indeed bubbles and by now, everybody on the planet knows how things turned out. Heck with a little luck and/or the help of a few algo-induced buy programs, the NASDAQ might actually get back to the high it hit 15 years ago soon!

What About Today?

My apologies for the digression into what will likely be perceived as ancient history. Getting back to the present, the question ...

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China, Bullard Making Headlines...

While the spotlight has been on Janet Yellen this week, this morning traders are turning their attention to China. In Shanghai, stocks rocketed higher with the composite index gaining 2.14% overnight. Calls for additional monetary stimulus/easing were cited as the ...

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The Key To This Move Is...

The key to yesterday's move to fresh all-time highs was easy to identify as Janet Yellen did herself proud in front of the Senate Banking Committee. So before we move on to other inputs or the drivers behind today's early ...

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The Story of the Day Is...

There was no shortage of stories to attract the attention of traders and their computers yesterday. It seemed like there was a new item flashing across the screens every 15 minutes or so. However, at the end of the day, ...

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On To The Next Big Thing?

The fact that the S&P 500 finally made a convincing break for the border and finished at an all-time high on Friday may have some investors scratching their heads. Yes, there was a deal reached to extend Greece's loan by ...

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The Drama Continues But The Real Question Is...

Today's market action continues to be all about Greece. As is typically the case on a Friday, there has been a flurry of headlines from both sides of the debate today. For example, it is being reported that the ECB ...

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Greece, Oil Remain the Focal Points

Trying to pin down the primary driver of the current stock market is a little tricky as there seems to be three or four sources of input these days. For starters, there can be little doubt that traders are keeping ...

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If Prices Continue to Follow the Recent Trend...

To say that the recent market action has been frustrating to traders would be an understatement. Since the beginning of December, the major indices have moved up and down within a clearly defined trading range and changed direction no fewer ...

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Traders Cutting To The Chase

The current Greek drama appears to be going largely according to script. Past crises related to Greece have taught traders to push stocks higher when optimism that the latest "deal" is going to get done and conversely, to hit the ...

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Is Optimism Returning to Wall Street?

Although Greece remains the focal point at this time, the good news is that according to sources, the Eurogroup's finance ministers appear to be working toward a deal that would extend the terms of the current bailout for something on ...

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Traders Have Seen This Greek Drama Before

To be sure, the current situation in Europe has a familiar ring to it. Greece makes demands and threatens to leave the Eurozone. Greek officials make offers. Germany says, "Nein!" Analysts then fret about what could happen to the banks ...

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None The Worse For Wear?

Everybody knows that the attention span of a Wall Street trader often rivals that of a gnat. Understanding this helps explain the schizophrenic behavior displayed by the major indices since the beginning of December. Back and forth. Up and down. ...

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