We've been saying that the key to the current stock market environment is to recognize that the indices have been basically stuck in the middle with you (hat tip to 70's one-hit wonder, Stealers Wheel) for some time now. Some will argue that the S&P 500 has been trapped in a sideways trading range since late February, while others contend that the trendless environment began back in November of last year.
Personally, I believe that the current trading range began in 2015. But whether you believe that the rangebound environment commenced in November 2014 or February 2015 is really beside the point. In looking at the chart below, I think we can all agree that the market has been moving in a sideways fashion for many moons now, right?
S&P 500 Index - Daily 
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But at Ned Davis Research, they like to quantify stuff like this. In a recent report, their technical team, which is second to none, by the way, found that the range from top to bottom on the S&P 500 over the past 9 months has been 7.4%.
While that may not sound all that "tight," it turns out that since 1928, such a range is pretty darn rare. According to NDR's computers, the market has traded in a range of 8% or less over a 9-month period just 1.4% of the time.
However, since the up and down, back and forth environment has been so prevalent this year, many fear that this is the "new, new normal."
Has This Happened Before?
Being a bit of a student of market history, I know that this type of environment has indeed happened before. I recall the 2005-2006 period as being particularly difficult to navigate. And sure enough, NDR informs us that there were two brief ...
