I am short on time this morning, but with the market apparently back in "freakout" mode I thought it might be a good idea to quickly review some of the key takeaways from the current market action.
First, the excuse du jour for yesterday's dance to the downside remains the same - worries about global growth. Or in this case, the potential lack thereof.
The selling began yesterday after China's Industrial Profits data stunk up the joint, coming in well below expectations at -8.8% on a year-over-year basis versus the prior month's reading of -2.9%. As such, the fear is that China's slowdown may be accelerating. This is not my assessment mind you, but rather, what traders seem to be worried about.
The worries were exacerbated by the continued collapse in the commodities space with Glencore's troubles getting a lot of attention. Note that GLEN.LN stock has plunged over 40% in the past few weeks. Analysts suggest the selloff is being driven by concerns around the commodity trader's balance sheet and liquidity, reflected by both rising CDS and bond yields. However, this is not keeping macro players from focusing on the decline in commodities of all shapes and sizes, which, of course, causes concern about global growth (are you sensing a theme here?).
The Playbook Still In Play
The next big issue traders are wrestling with is the fact that what I call the "Crash Playbook" is still in play here. Recall that traders on Wall Street LOVE the pattern recognition game and so far at least, the current decline continues to mirror the 2011 mini bear market.
S&P 500 - Daily
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Recall that the "Crash Playbook" tells us to look for 5 phases during an emotional "waterfall" decline. Phase I is the big dive. Phase II ...