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WHAT A DIFFERENCE A WEEK MAKES

Here are some random observations before we get into today’s analysis:

  • Changes are abound in the markets – at least for a week.
  • We saw a sharp turn in fortunes in equities – from last Fridays’ post-jobs numbers sell-off to this Friday’s morning’s growing overbought condition. Most of that rally appears to have been related to optimisim of continued dovish behavior by the US Federal Reserve. That idea was further strengthened following the release of the FOMC’s meeting minutes on Thursday.
  • We saw other trends being reversed / nearly reversed this week – namely in sugar, coffee and wheat. Meanwhile, others remained in place – such as with soybeans and soybean meal.
  • Only time will tell whether the rally in stocks will hold and whether these trend changes take hold. For now, let the technicals act as an alert to the potential changes in longer-term direction.
  • Let’s go to the charts for more info on where things may be headed….Have a great weekend!

S&P futures post a torrid win streak since last Friday’s employment report

Recap of last week’s thoughts on the S&P e-Mini Futures:

  • The S&P futures were testing support at 1885 when we wrote last week’s report.
  • We recommended selling any rally to 1954 and using a close above 1960 as a stop-loss trigger.

Here’s an updated chart of the S&P e-Mini Futures:

Stocks started to rally, withstood any bearish challenges and continued their upside bias into the weekend this week.

As the chart above shows, there appears to be some important resistance in the 2015 – 2021 range for the S&P futures. That level is merely 0.5% above the trading levels at midday on Friday.

From our perch, there appear to be two possible scenarios for ...

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Comments

Crude and the S&P

Resistance on crude oil comes in the form of a range from 49.21 - 49.63. If 49.63 is broken on a 240-minute basis (10am, 2pm, etc.), there's clear air up to $56 in our humble opinion. If ...

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I'm still skeptical of this market...

...and here's why!

Wave counts and Elliott Wave rules just don't paint a bullish picture:

  • On a very macro perspective (using the weekly chart below), the S&P is set up for a relatively deep correction off of the ...
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Comments

Morning strategy - cover shorts and wait a bit longer to go long

Notice we didn't flip and go long the market this morning even though we did cover the short. I'll be more comfortable with a long side play between 1854 and 1872 on the S&P futures. Stay tuned.

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Comments

Rough opening for equity longs

Good morning for those of you safely in cash or bonds this morning.

It's going to be a rough open for the equity markets this morning (S&P futures are down about 33 points or 1.66% at 1930 and ...

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Comments

Coming into view....

For the S&P futures, we see a short-term bounce from current levels at 1944 - 46 to 1971 - 75.

We would be buyers between current and 1944 with stops below 1944 on a 60-minute basis and an upside target of 1971 ...

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Comments

Beware of 700 - 1000 point down on Dow on Monday - Wednesday

...at least that's what the charts are telling me.

Don't go into weekend loaded up with stocks!!!

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Comments

Naz futures chart

Here's the bullish look at things:

4319 - 4320 has been a significant level of either support or resistance for the last couple of months. I believe it will act as support once again as this upside correction ebbs and ...

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Comments

Afternoon update

Obviously a nice downside reversal occurred prior to 2pm (the 240-minute close) turning the bearish trade in our favor.

I would be holding overnight, but would be ready for some volatility tomorrow morning with the jobs report due out at ...

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Comments

Take profits on today's intraday long!!!

I was unable to enter an exit trade for today's intraday QLD long before the close and the system won't let me make an after-hours limit order - unfortunately.

I would be taking that long position off the table ...

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Comments

Quick update on levels

As noted earlier, 1947 on the S&P futures is the trading target for longs.

However, I wouldn't be shorting until 1960 is tested. Stops should be honored on any 10 minute close above 1960.50.

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Comments

Intraday update

Intraday support for S&P futures comes in at 1916.50 (currently at 1921 or so).

Upside resistance for the futures comes in starting at 1947.

Buy near support and sell (ideally) near resistance.

Use any 10-minute close below 1916.50 ...

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Comments

Reviews Average Rating          

         
Excellent advice these last turbulent months...
         
Wide stop loss and small at profit taking but that's their style.
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