Here's how I came up with the 51 and 67.5 levels of late-day resistance today:
|Extremes||Closes||Range of Resistance|
|50 % Retracement from Intraday Low||2050.5||2047.25||2047.25 - 2051|
|50 % Retracement from Closing Low||2051||2047.75|
|61.8% Retracement from Intraday Low||2067||2062.75||2062.75 - 2067.5|
|61.8% Retracement from Closing Low||2067.5||2063.25|
If 2067.25 if broken on the upside, there's a strong likelihood that ES eventually moves to a test of the highs. If, somehow, 67..25 holds, then perhaps we see another downdraft to new lows below 1981.50.
In the more bullish case: If you take 2068 - 1981.50, you get 86.50 (or 86 if we use 1982) for what appears to be a five wave move off the bottom. If we take 86 from the all time intraday high of 2119.50, that gives us a pullback target of 2033.50. If we take 86.5 from the all time closing high of 2113.25, we get a pullback target of 2026.75. So the expected pullback range - even if we assume a move back up to the highs - is 2026.75 - 2033. Those two numbers also correspond with the 38.2% and 50% retracement levels for the 1981.50 - 2068 up move that just occurred (2035 and 2024 respectively - with 2047 being the 23.6% retrace).
That is why I am reticent to dump uvxy - despite the obvious pain in holding this right now.
In retrospect, the minute 2021 was violated on a 60-minute close yesterday, we should've been out of the bearish plays. We could've tried them again at 41 - 44.50 and 51 with stops on closes above 45 and 51 respectively. We would have lost on all ...