Is That Weakness Creeping In?

Good morning. We've got a new week on tap so let's get started with a review of my key market models/indicators and see where we stand. To review, the primary goal of this exercise is to try and remove any subjective notions about what "should" be happening in the market in an attempt to stay in line with what "is" happening in the markets. So, let's get started.

The State of the Trend

We start our review each week with a look at the "state of the trend." These indicators are designed to give us a feel for the overall health of the current short- and intermediate-term trend models.


View Trend Indicator Board Online

Executive Summary:

  • Although the market has only see two down days, the short-term Trend Model has slipped to neutral.
  • The short-term Channel Breakout System remains positive as long as the S&P 500 stays above 2565 this week.
  • Although the bears are coming out of the woodwork to proclaim the end is near, the intermediate-term Trend Model is still in good shape.
  • The intermediate-term Channel Breakout System remains positive above 2544 this week.
  • The long-term Trend Model also remains solidly positive at this time.
  • The Cycle Composite points lower again this week before starting to turn higher.
  • The Trading Mode models suggest that this remains a trending environment.

The State of Internal Momentum

Next up are the momentum indicators, which are designed to tell us whether there is any "oomph" behind the current trend.


View Momentum Indicator Board Online

Executive Summary:

  • The short-term Trend and Breadth Confirm Model slipped to negative last week as breadth had been weakening prior to the blue chip indices starting to falter.
  • However, the intermediate-term Trend and Breadth Confirm Model continues positive.
  • The Industry Health Model didn't ...
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Bulls Starting To Feel The Love

One of the primary arguments coming out of the bear camp these days is the stock market game is just too easy right now. Our furry friends suggest that when things become too one-sided for an extended length of time ...

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Bulls Showing Signs of Fatigue

Good morning. We've got a new week on tap so let's get started with a review of my key market models/indicators and see where we stand. To review, the primary goal of this exercise is to try ...

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The Daily Decision for 11.3.17 - DD LEADERS +21.5% YTD


The Daily Decision Models:

The Daily Decision is designed to be a simple, easy-to-follow e-letter service showcasing 3 different model portfolios. The LEADERS model is a growth oriented strategy that focuses on "where the action is" in terms of market ...

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Should We Still Count On a Year-End Rally?

It is said that history doesn't repeat, but that it often rhymes. And based on my experience, this is certainly true in the stock market. It is this very concept that is behind the study of seasonality on Wall ...

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What A "Blow-Off" Looks/Feels Like

The title of yesterday's missive was "The Blow-Off Stage?". The suggestion was given that the dominant color on my favorite models/indicator boards relating to the stock market's trend and momentum is green, it could be possible that ...

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The Blow-Off Stage?

I experienced some "technical difficulties" when attempting to get this report published yesterday morning. Between a new location for files, a new laptop, and the fact I was attempting to publish in the wee hours from a hotel room, well ...

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What Could Go Wrong?

Yesterday's missive took a glass-is-half-full stance by exploring the various tailwinds the bulls are counting on to keep stock prices movin' on up. The list included earnings, economic growth, low inflation, ongoing QE, favorable seasonality, the flows into passive ...

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It Can't Continue, Can It?

Yesterday, we talked about the fact that the stock market has now enjoyed the longest stretch ever without experiencing a correction of 3% or more. We noted that the CBOE Volatility Index (aka the VIX) recently hit an all-time low ...

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Fear Has Left The Building

Although the S&P 500 finished the session with the biggest decline in nearly two months, the fact that the venerable index didn't fall 3% yesterday meant a new record for the longest period of time without a 3% correction ...

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The Daily Decision for 10.23.17 - Leaders +20.4% YTD


The Daily Decision Models:

The Daily Decision is designed to be a simple, easy-to-follow e-letter service showcasing 3 different model portfolios. The LEADERS model is a growth oriented strategy that focuses on "where the action is" in terms of market ...

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An Awful Lot of Green And Upgraded Models

Good morning. We've got a new week on tap so let's get started with a review of my key market models/indicators and see where we stand. To review, the primary goal of this exercise is to try ...

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5 star all the way. Your insight and knowledge is very helpful. Analysis, charts and conclusions are sound.
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