The Daily Decisions for 1.8.18 - Bulls On The Run


2018 YTD Performance Update:
DD TRADING Model: +3.2%
DD LEADERS MOdel: +2.8%
S&P 500: +2.6%


The State of the Market:

With the S&P 500 up 2.6% so far in 2018, it appears that, barring an unforeseen disaster today, the market will wind up with a gain for the first five trading days of the new year. And as the saying goes, "As the first five days of the year go, so goes the month." From there, another famous Wall Street-ism suggests, "As January goes, so goes the year." So, using these clichés as our guide, unless the bears can really find something to get excited about in the next 6.5 hours, it would appear that investors can position portfolios long the stock market and call it good for the year, right!

In my humble opinion, what we are seeing here is a classic melt-up. It's a new year and with the macro factors (economy, inflation, rates, fed, earnings, valuation) still favoring stocks, anyone positioning accounts for the long-term appears to be putting money to work. And this is part of the reason that January tends to be one of the best months of the year in the stock market.

However, it is important to note that (a) trees don't grow to the sky, (b) valuations matter, eventually, and (c) the current move is starting to look a bit parabolic (i.e. the current rate of ascent is unsustainable). As such, the odds would favor some sort of a pullback, corrective phase, or, at the very least, a pause in the joyride to the upside in the near-term.

Yet, technicians have been saying this for months now and the bulls have simply refused to yield. My take is there has been simply too much ...

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The Daily Decisions for 1.3.18


2017 Performance Update: Daily Decision LEADERS +23.91%
(vs. S&P 500 19.40%)


Today's Take...

While much of Wall Street is still enjoying the holiday season, there is a fair amount of action for market participants to digest today ...

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The Daily Decisions for 1.2.18


2017 Performance Update: Daily Decision LEADERS +23.91%
(vs. S&P 500 19.40%)


Today's Model Review:

LEADERS Model: The LEADERS currently holds positions in the Technology, Industrials, Health Care, and Financial sectors.

However, given the rotation occurring in market ...

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Can The Bears Find Their Long-Lost Mojo?

The "State of the Markets"

As we embark on a fresh new calendar year (aka the scorecard in our business), the question of the day is – in my mind, in my mind, anyway – will the bears will be able to ...

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The Daily Decision for 12.28.17 - Up 24.3% YTD


2018 Performance Update: Daily Decision LEADERS +24.3%
(vs. S&P 500 19.8%)


Today's Model Review:

LEADERS Model: The LEADERS currently holds positions in the Technology, Industrials, Health Care, and Financial sectors.

However, given the rotation occurring in market ...

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The Daily Decision for 12.27.17 - Trades Coming Soon in Leaders Model


2018 Performance Update: Daily Decision LEADERS +24.1%
(vs. S&P 500 19.7%)


Today's Model Review:

LEADERS Model: The LEADERS currently holds positions in the Technology, Industrials, Health Care, and Financial sectors. Heads up - given the rotation occurring in ...

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The Daily Decision for 12.22.17 - Leaders Up +24.5% YTD


2018 Performance Update: Daily Decision LEADERS +24.5%
(vs. S&P 500 19.9%)


The Daily Decision Models:

The Daily Decision is designed to be a simple, easy-to-follow e-letter service showcasing 3 different model portfolios. The LEADERS model is the flagship ...

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The Daily Decision for 12.18.17


2018 Performance Update: Daily Decision LEADERS +24.0%
( vs. S&P 500 19.5%)


The Daily Decision Models:

The Daily Decision is designed to be a simple, easy-to-follow e-letter service showcasing 3 different model portfolios. The LEADERS model is the flagship ...

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The Daily Decision for 12.4.17 - Up +22.5% YTD


Publishing Note: The calendar is challenging this week and we will publish Daily Updates as time permits. However, we will publish TRADE ALERTS before any adjustments are made to the portfolio.

The Daily Decision Models:

The Daily Decision is designed ...

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Is The Exuberance Rational This Time Around?

Just when you thought it might be time for stocks to pull back and for traders to perhaps rethink the low-volatility, steady march higher, the major indices blasted to fresh all-time highs yesterday. Just when you thought tax reform (or ...

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Will Low Volatility Mean Lower Risk Next Time?

Well, it's official. According to Ned Davis Research, this is now the longest period in history without the S&P 500 experiencing a correction of 3% or more. For those of you keeping score at home, NDR tells us that ...

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Headline Risk Leads To Sloppiness, But So Far, So Good

Good morning. We've got a new week on tap so let's get started with a review of my key market models/indicators and see where we stand. To review, the primary goal of this exercise is to try ...

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