- We're close to a trade deal....again.
- Any deal will be a much smaller one than the one they were "close to" back in April...when the stock market was more than 5% lower.
- Will Hong Kong cause a deal to fall apart after its agreed to?
- The stock market has already priced-in most of the good news on trade
- Others now agree with our bearish short-term technical call on AAPL
Broken record: We're close to a trade deal...again.
THAT GOD!!! We’re finally “close” to a trade deal with China…according to several senior member of the Trump administration!!!! Wait a minute, wasn’t what they said a week ago…two weeks ago…three weeks ago….etc.? In fact, isn’t that what they said about a much bigger deal back in late April???.....Anyway, the futures are trading higher this morning off of this news, but we question just how much the market will rally once a “Phase One” deal is agreed to. Actually, with the impact of today’s algo’s, it wouldn’t surprise us if we got an initial pop in the stock market, but we seriously question the sustainability of that kind of rally.
Any deal will be a much smaller one than the one they were "close to" back in April...when the stock market was more than 5% lower.
The administration has done a masterful job of spinning this “Phase One” deal to make is sound like it’s going to be a substantial one. We do not know the details of it yet, but from everything we can glean, it’s very, very small deal. All we will get from China is what they’ve been willing to give us all along (although the size of those agricultural purchases now seems to be in question)…and nothing substantial will come ...