Morning Comment: Trade deal already priced-in....AAPL due for a drop.


  • We're close to a trade deal....again.
  • Any deal will be a much smaller one than the one they were "close to" back in April...when the stock market was more than 5% lower.
  • Will Hong Kong cause a deal to fall apart after its agreed to?
  • The stock market has already priced-in most of the good news on trade
  • Others now agree with our bearish short-term technical call on AAPL


Broken record: We're close to a trade deal...again.

THAT GOD!!! We’re finally “close” to a trade deal with China…according to several senior member of the Trump administration!!!! Wait a minute, wasn’t what they said a week ago…two weeks ago…three weeks ago….etc.? In fact, isn’t that what they said about a much bigger deal back in late April???.....Anyway, the futures are trading higher this morning off of this news, but we question just how much the market will rally once a “Phase One” deal is agreed to. Actually, with the impact of today’s algo’s, it wouldn’t surprise us if we got an initial pop in the stock market, but we seriously question the sustainability of that kind of rally.

Any deal will be a much smaller one than the one they were "close to" back in April...when the stock market was more than 5% lower.

The administration has done a masterful job of spinning this “Phase One” deal to make is sound like it’s going to be a substantial one. We do not know the details of it yet, but from everything we can glean, it’s very, very small deal. All we will get from China is what they’ve been willing to give us all along (although the size of those agricultural purchases now seems to be in question)…and nothing substantial will come ...

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Morning Comment: Phase One Deal Priced-in....AAPL Quite Overbought



In our opinion, both the U.S. and China want and need a “Phase One” trade deal…and thus one will be signed in the not-too-distant future. Not only do both side want and need one, but a significant break-down in ...

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Morning Comment: 3 Industrial Stocks Looking to Make Big Moves


  • The XLI industrial stock ETF has broken key resistance, but it’s getting overbought near-term
  • GE is coming off of a VERY, VERY overbought level and looks ripe for a tradeable decline.
  • FDX is overbought near-term, but has a lot of ...
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Morning Comment: Energy Stocks Poised or a Powerful Breakout


The energy stocks have been lagging the market all year (until very recently)...and they are now poised to breakout in a powerful way if the energy stock ETF (the XLE & XOP) can break above the key resistance levels ...

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Morning Comment...Micron (MU): The Stock Trader's Dream Stock!


  • MU is a stock trader's dream. It's liquid and it's never boring. It either rallies in a meaningful way...or declines in a significant way.
  • We're watching the 50 DMA on MU. Whichever way it "breaks ...
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Morning Comment: 10yr Yield Right Back to Critical Level


China moves the goal posts (again).

There has been another change in the trade negotiations with China...as China is now asking for a scaling back of some existing tariffs as a prerequisite for signing the "Phase One" deal. We ...

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Morning Comment: Is a "Melt-up" Possible? (Answer: Yes.)

China has moved the goal posts on the "Phase One" trade deal...by asking for the U.S. to remove some of their existing tariffs. If President Trump caves-in to these demands, it will only prolong the "Economic Cold War ...

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Morning Comment: Natural Gas Breaking Out???


  • Good day for stocks on Friday, but getting overbought near-term
  • A mild, short-term pull-back would actually be healthy
  • Natural gas is breaking out
  • However, it needs more upside follow-through for confirmation
  • COG is the stock with the best potential in ...
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Can Gold retest its Aug/Sept Highs???


A quick look at the short-term chart on gold.

Gold has risen back above its 50 DMA today…and it has broken above its short-term trend-line (going back to the early September highs). If it can now break above $1,520 ...

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Morning Comment: WATCH THE DOLLAR!!!


  • Powell indicates that rate HIKES are off the table…but who really thought they were ON the table between now and the 2020 election???
  • Over the past 10 months, Chairman Powell has skillfully moved the ball firmly into President Trump’s court ...
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Morning Comment: Several Markets at Critical Junctures


It’s never ceases to astound us how human nature works when it comes to the markets. Back in late August…when the stock market was falling…people were talking about an earnings recession…if not a full blown economic recession. Today (in October ...

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Morning Comment: SEVERAL Markets at Critical Junctures

  • Good day for the stock market, but need more follow-through
  • 10yr Treasury note yield near key resistance (of 1.9%) level
  • Several different markets at critical junctures
  • None of the recent market moves have been compelling...yet
  • When things DO ...
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