Morning Comment: Oil & gas stock poised to breakout again?



After falling for five straight days, the S&P 500 looks higher by about a half a percentage point this morning. There does not seem to be a key reason why the market is bouncing back this morning…other than the fact that it has fallen five days in a row and thus it has become a bit oversold on a VERY short-term basis. This does not mean that the bounce cannot last for a few days, but the market could/should get another test as early as tomorrow morning…when we get another important inflation number. The Consumer Price Index comes out tomorrow morning at 8:30 and the consensus estimate for the CPI is for a gain of 0.4% (+0.3% ex food & energy).

As we mentioned in our weekend piece, the CRB Commodity Index is bumping up against the top end of the sideways range it has been in for a couple of months now. (The CRB had rallied very strongly from last November through the middle of this summer. However, with the big pull-back in lumber and a decline in a few other commodities, the CRB had settled in the second half of the summer.) However, it is starting to rise once again. Lumber has stabilized…copper is rallying…and aluminum hit $3,000 in overnight trading for the first time in 13 years. So as you can see, this asset class has regained its strength from earlier in the year...and it is now poised for another breakout move. If this index can break above its summer highs in a significant way, it would move it out of its sideways range…and signal that a new leg to this rally in commodities has begun. (First chart below.)

Crude oil had acted a bit worse than the broad commodity index over the months of July & ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10

We just want to make a quick comment because we have some new readers. Each point begins with a very quick summery (in bold letters) of what we’ll say in the “body” of that bullet point. We still like to ...

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Morning Comment.......Never forget.

Tomorrow will be the 20th anniversary of 9/11, so it’s tough to talk about the markets on a day like this. With this in mind, we’ll just highlight a few bullet points…and leave the rest of the market analysis to ...

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Morning Comment: Imminent change in trend for the bond market?



Well, here we are, it’s September. Sure, it technically began last Wednesday, but now that Labor Day weekend is behind us, the seasonally September/October timeframe has officially begun. Of course, the fact that everybody is talking about this seasonally tough ...

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Morning Comment: ECB warning....China warning....Mega-cap tech extended.



The stock market rallied for the seventh time in eight days yesterday, but Monday’s move was a very narrow one, and it came on very low volume. Despite the 20-point rally in the S&P 500, the breadth for that index ...

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Morning Comment: Long-term yields creeping higher.....GOOGL getting very overbought


As we move closer to this week’s KC Fed Symposium in Jackson Hole, the yield on the U.S 10-year note has crept a bit higher…and it is now back above 1.3%. This is not a major development. In fact, the ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10


THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) Don’t blame the Fed if that stock market corrects at some point this year.

2) “Supply constraint” inflation is much different (and much worse) than “demand led” inflation.

3) Economic data could ...

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Morning Comment: Stagflation is the real concern, so stop blaming the Fed.



We got a relative sharp decline in the stock market yesterday on very poor breadth (8 to 1 negative on the S&P 500), but volume was not very strong (just 2.4bn shares on the composite volume). However, the market closed ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10



THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) The argument that ultra-low rates justify higher stock prices is quite flawed in today’s world.

2) The stock market IS expensive. Don’t let anybody tell you otherwise.

2a) The odds that the ...

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Morning Comment: LT Rates Are Headed Higher, So Value Should Outperform Growth Going Forward.



It is interesting to see/hear the big divergence that has developed recently between the bullish and bearish opinions on the variants of the coronavirus. On the bullish side of things, we’re hear some health experts say that this the current ...

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Morning Comment: The Fed Has Done a GREAT Job....High Yield Market Showing Some Cracks.


Seventeen months ago, the global economy was in free-fall. In fact, it was all but shutting down. This, in turn, caused the fixed income markets to freeze-up. Customers were even having a tough time getting Wall Street firms to make ...

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Basic Material stocks are sending up a yellow warning flag on the economy

Key S&P sector may be signaling a second-half growth slowdown, strategist warns


Above, you can find the clip of the interview I did for CNBC.com yesterday (which was posted on their site today).

We've seen a drop in bond yields ...

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