THE WEEKLY TOP 10

Table of Contents:

1) “Phase One” is little more than what the President has been offered by China all along.

2) The relationship with China has changed…and the 2020 election won’t change it back.

3) This means business executives and investors have to adjust to this new reality.

4) If we’re wrong, the semis should be the ones to tell us.

5) Believe it or not, European stocks are testing a very important RESISTANCE level!

6) Earnings stink.

7) Is the yield curve telling us that banks can finally outperform. (Not quite yet, but….)

8) Crude oil bounces off IMPORTANT support, but needs to rally further.

9) Steven Bannon thinks Hillary Clinton or Michael Bloomberg will be the Democratic nominee.

10) Summary of our current stance.

Short Version:

1) In our Morning Comment from Thursday, we said that President Trump could not afford to let the trade negotiations breakdown completely. Therefore, some sort of interim deal would be struck & the markets would see a short-term bounce. This is exactly what took place, but we do not think this was much of a deal at all. We got nothing more than what China has always been willing to give us…..However, the existing tariffs are still there, so it was not a major victory for China either.

2) The relationship with China has changed…and this is much more than just a trade war. It now includes issues like human rights, capital flows and currency issues (the verbal agreement not withstanding). The BI-PARTISAN shift in policy by the U.S. will create headwinds for growth around the world for a some-time…and that will make it hard for the U.S. stock market to rally much beyond its old highs….We’re at the beginning of a major shift ...

The stock market was able to retrace 2/3 of what it lost on Tuesday during yesterday’s trading. It was actually a better day until there were 20 minutes left before the closing bell. At 3:40pm, the S&P had ...

The S&P is within 1.7% from its first key support level...and two of the three most important leadership groups are even closer to their own support levels. Today's "services" data will be important, but all eyes will ...

For the second time over the past three trading days, the stock market is seeing fairly steep midday sell-off. It’s obviously not a major decline, but 1% is still a meaningful move. However, also for the second time in three ...

• Broken “neck-line” and “positioning” issues mean gold should see more downside movement near-term.
• Energy stocks are suddenly outperforming crude oil…and Saudi production claims misleading.
• BOJ shifting bond purchases. That’s good for the yield curve…and thus bullish for the bank stocks ...

The impeachment investigation is getting an incredible amount of attention…which is no surprise. Let’s face it, it has only taken place three times in our history. (Actually, since speaker Pelosi hasn’t been a vote in the House, the impeachment process ...

• We have been cautious on the banks since early Dec 2016
• They're flat since then...vs. a more than 34% rally in the S&P 500
• However, this could change IF two technical moves take place

One month after the ...

We spent a decent amount of time this morning writing our normal piece. In it, we touched-on yesterday’s consumer confidence data…and what it might be telling us about the U.S. consumer. We also talk about the crash in Bitcoin ...

When volatility in many different markets rises in a significant way, it's rarely a bullish development.

Today’s 11% mini-crash in Bitcoin is taking it below the “descending triangle” pattern that I touched on a few weeks ago….breaking well ...

Morning Comment: The University of Iowa "Wave"

• “Quadruple Witch” expiration today.
• The current trade talks are not focusing on any of the all-important long-term issues.
• The global intelligence community was taken completely off guard by the Saudi attacks.
• China’s stock ...

Our calls on the housing stocks have worked out very, very well over the past year. We turned bullish on the group in the 4th quarter of last year...and reiterated that stance over the summer when the ITB home ...

• Many see the bounce in oil will be short-lived.
• However, the "risk premium" HAS to be raise for crude.
• This should put a floor under crude.
• This, in turn, should give investors confidence in the group.
• A group that is ...