Morning Comment Part II...Banks Poised to Breakout?


In our “Morning Comment” this morning, we said that the employment report probably wouldn’t have much impact on the markets…unless it came-in at a much different level than expected. Well, it DID come-in at a level that was much different than expected (much better than expected)…and thus it is indeed having an outsized impact on several different markets. Not only are the stock futures rising…but so are interest rates and the dollar.

Whether the employment report has an impact on the broad market past today (when the trade issue becomes front & center once again), the rise in interest rates should have a key impact on the bank stocks going forward. The move in rates is important…because even though the KBE bank ETF has out-performed since the August lows, it has not yet broken out of the sideways range it has been in since the very beginning of the year. Yes, it looked like it was going to breakout of that range in early November, but the move above the top-end of its 10-month range was only a slight one…and it has been “riding” the top line of that range for several weeks. Therefore, if this move in the bond market today hold…and the KBE can break above its November highs of $46.80 in any meaningful way…it should confirm that the outperformance for this group is going to accelerate.

This will be bullish for the major names, but we’d also note that some of the stocks that have been lagging before the recent rally in the group could have more upside potential. Don’t get us wrong, we’re not saying that investors should avoid stocks like JPM if the KBE does indeed confirm its breakout. We’re just saying that others should also rally nicely…and might even outperform.

For example ...

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Morning Comment: A Delay in New Tariffs is Already Priced-in


Today’s employment report will not be as important as it has been on many other occasions this year. In previous months, it was something everybody was watching because investors believe that it could have had a compelling impact on whether ...

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UNP Could be a Catalyst for the Transports in 2020


  • Transports continue to lag...and remain range-bound.
  • They also remain 8% below their 2018 all-time highs.
  • 11,000 and 11,500 are the two resistance levels to watch.
  • A breakout in UNP should be a positive catalyst for this group ...
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(Quick) Midday Comment: Last Hour Will Be Important Today


The last hour of trading has always been important, but it should be particularly important today.

The S&P 500 has not closed at or near its lows for the day very often at all since the October lows. In fact ...

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Morning Comment: Keep One Eye on German Bund Yields


There are several reasons why long-term Treasury yields remain low. One obvious reason is the slowdown in growth we've experienced this year...both here in the U.S. and around the globe. However another reason is the ultra low ...

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Home Depot: Poised for a ST bounce (& maybe a LT rally).


Home Depot (HD) has become very oversold on a short-term basis. A 9% decline in less than a week has taken its RSI chart on HD to an oversold level...at a time that it is also testing its trend-line ...

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Morning Comment: Michael Bloomberg's Chances are Quite Good


  • Our record on Presidential Elections predictions is quite good.
  • NYC Mayors have a LOUSY record winning higher office.
  • However, Mr. Bloomberg definitely has a lane for success.
  • Enough people want Mr. Trump's policies without Mr. Trump.
  • Two dozen "open ...
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THE WEEKY TOP 10


THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) The market acts great, but it’s also getting expensive, overbought and over-loved.

2) The key tech ETFs…& several key tech stocks…are beginning to show some cracks.

3) Ditto for the high yield ...

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What the hell is going on with AMD today???


Although I frequently like to send out notes that give both sides of the bull/bear ledger on a given situation, I almost always take a definitive stance on which side of that ledger I stand at any that time ...

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Morning Comment: Nobody is Selling!!!


  • Never short a dull market...especially when nobody is selling.
  • However, can the next 6 weeks be anything like the past 6 weeks?
  • If it is, sell everything at the beginning of the New Year...because the market will be ...
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Morning Comment: Goldman Sachs (GS) testing KEY resistance


Despite the way it might have seemed, the stock market had really be trading in a relatively tight sideways range for the past two weeks...until Friday. Since the past two week had followed a very nice (6.6%) rally ...

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The Weekly Top 10


THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) The stock market has already priced-in a “Phase One” deal.

2) Earnings growth (and future estimates) do not justify this level in the stock market.

3) We’re seeing small (repeat, small) cracks ...

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