THE WEEKLY TOP 10
Table of Contents:
1) “Phase One” is little more than what the President has been offered by China all along.
2) The relationship with China has changed…and the 2020 election won’t change it back.
3) This means business executives and investors have to adjust to this new reality.
4) If we’re wrong, the semis should be the ones to tell us.
5) Believe it or not, European stocks are testing a very important RESISTANCE level!
6) Earnings stink.
7) Is the yield curve telling us that banks can finally outperform. (Not quite yet, but….)
8) Crude oil bounces off IMPORTANT support, but needs to rally further.
9) Steven Bannon thinks Hillary Clinton or Michael Bloomberg will be the Democratic nominee.
10) Summary of our current stance.
1) In our Morning Comment from Thursday, we said that President Trump could not afford to let the trade negotiations breakdown completely. Therefore, some sort of interim deal would be struck & the markets would see a short-term bounce. This is exactly what took place, but we do not think this was much of a deal at all. We got nothing more than what China has always been willing to give us…..However, the existing tariffs are still there, so it was not a major victory for China either.
2) The relationship with China has changed…and this is much more than just a trade war. It now includes issues like human rights, capital flows and currency issues (the verbal agreement not withstanding). The BI-PARTISAN shift in policy by the U.S. will create headwinds for growth around the world for a some-time…and that will make it hard for the U.S. stock market to rally much beyond its old highs….We’re at the beginning of a major shift ...