Until yesterday, traders worried that the Fed might increase rates sooner than expected. Until yesterday, traders were concerned that the recent good economic news might wind up being bad news for the stock market. And until yesterday, traders fretted that the Fed might make a mistake.
However, all of the nervousness about what the Fed could, would, or should do next were put to rest after the release of the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting. In short, the minutes showed that Janet Yellen's merry band of central bank governors are now concerned that weakness overseas coupled with a rising U.S. dollar could hurt the economy here at home and keep inflation below the 2 percent target.
The bottom line is the FOMC minutes were music to the ears of traders. And while the trading machines liked the statement initially, it was the human interpretation, which takes a few minutes to actually be developed, that caused stocks to rocket higher Wednesday afternoon.
Don't Fight the Fed
As far as the stock market is concerned, the key is the minutes showed that the FOMC members actually cut their outlook for both economic growth AND inflation. The instant interpretation was simple: rates are NOT going to be rising any time soon and the Ms. Yellen has "cover" to keep from raising rates for as long as she'd like.
Bam! Within seconds, stocks were off to the races. High speed trend-following algos jumped on the long side. Shorts scrambled for cover. And the dip-buyers once again did their thing.
The result was an impressive daily move that recovered all of Monday and Tuesday's losses. Suddenly the game wasn't about the weak German economic data, China's punk numbers, or the IMF's latest prognostication about global growth. Nope. Suddenly the game was back to being ...