Weekly Wrap-Up + Market Forecast + Sector Watch: SPX, Nasdaq, FAS, BTK, IGV, ASHR

Markets were choppy last week and ultimately ended lower. Stocks started out the week falling. Wednesday morning had some irrational buying, which faded in the afternoon. The selling resumed on Thursday and Friday, although some buyers came in before the close.

We had a mixed week. Our LNKD calls on earnings didn't work out. But, most of our trades were good. Here are the closed trades for the week:

For the week, the Dow was down 316.48 points; SPX fell 26.27 points; Nasdaq dropped 84.74 points. Gold was little changed, still hanging above $1090/ounce. Oil fell further to around $44/barrel. At the time of this writing, Asian markets were mixed. Interestingly, China is up, even though its export numbers were down. Let's take a look at the US markets:


On Friday, SPX fell 5.99 points to close at 2077.57. It fell below its daily MAs and its MACD went lower.


Nasdaq fell 12.9 points to close at 5043.54. It also closed below its daily MAs. Its MACD dropped.

Both SPX and Nasdaq closed below their respective daily MAs. For the new week, I think we are going to get a mixed opening to start the week. Biotechs have come down quite far in just two days; there will need to be some consolidation. Even though both SPX and Nasdaq closed below their respective daily MAs, the MAs are crisscrossed. So, it will take some more time before the charts are finally "bearish". SPX managed to close near 2080 on Friday, so, the support still sits between 2070 and 2050.

CSCO is reporting on Wednesday after the market. I'd expect it to be solid numbers as FFIV, JNPR, CTXS, and ANET all reported strongly. Incidentally, if the market sees buying next week, these stocks should do well.

I'll be watching the leading sectors that we looked at last week. In addition, I think the Chinese stocks are about to make a bounce!

Sector Watch

FAS (financial)

FAS is still looking neutral. Although its MACD has fallen, it is still resting just above its daily MAs. AXP's bounce on Friday certainly helped. GS looks the weakest among the big banks, while the others reflect what the sector ETF is doing.

BTK (biotech)

Biotech is now in the "bear" territory. It closed below its lower daily BB. BIIB, AMGN, GILD, and CELG are all looking weak. But, sometimes, its the betas that fall the most. I'll be looking at some of those in the coming week.

IGV (software)

IGV is still staying strong. CRM and RHT are a bit weak. MSFT and ADBE are staying strong. CYBR is reporting on Tuesday after the market.

ASHR (Chinese ADRs)

ASHR is drawing a support above 38.2. The MAs are also bunching up. The MACD is tilting higher. One pop will send it above its MAs. I think BIDU is about to make a move up. NTES will report on Wednesday after market. SINA and WBAI should do well if the sector bounces. CTRP had a great quarter and could pop higher. Besides the above, I really like LVS and WYNN. I consider these two "China Plays", even though, they are not Chinese companies.

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

Posted to Ecstatic Plays on Aug 09, 2015 — 10:08 PM
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