Today's one thing is... exhale.
I wonder how many subscribers heard a presidential candidate in 1991 claim that he had tried marijuana, but never inhaled. He didn't like it, so he never tried it again. Regardless of how many people believed him then, we know that most didn't care either way.
I wonder how many subscribers feel like they've been holding their breath that long, waiting for marijuana stocks to end their decline. Depending on how many people already believe it, the sector's current bottoming attempt still could go either way.
April 15 was the sector's first attempt to bottom since March's peaks. Multi-session price declines had been fulfilling my capitulation targets, but that morning's action extended down further anyway. And volume was still expanding. Despite being probed sharply intraday, all of my targets were recovered as support through the close.
In fact, the sector did firm and rally through the next several days. Then many of its components ranged narrowly sideways. What most issues didn't do was to quickly correct that bounce, or to extend on rising volume. And we eventually learned how that worked out.
Exactly one week later on April 22, Morgan Stanley issued a buy recommendation on GW Pharmaceuticals (GWPH) that triggered a two-day 66% rally. While I had expected GWPH to suck the oxygen out of the room and inhibit other MJ stocks from performing, I was anticipating that peak to rotate into the rest of the sector. GWPH's peak still stands today, but my investment theme at the time lies on the ground in tatters.
Exactly one week ago on May 21 I noted reason to suspect another bottoming attempt is underway. Downlegs already had started finding supports and bounces, but then a previously halted stock was unhalted (CBGI). Despite plunging to one-third of its pre-halt price, the MJ sector seemed not to care. Not one bit. Increasingly more stocks began or extended rallies.
Two days later, another stock was halted (FRTD), but MJ stocks seemed almost oblivious. More bounces began, and more rallies extended. More so, compared to the month-old attempt, volumes are improving. And the anecdotes are still coming after a weekend -- a long weekend. As an aside, GWPH hit a fresh low, and doesn't seem capable of stealing oxygen from the room now.
Is this a bottom? It's definitely an attempt. And it's definitely the best attempt, yet. Having said that, enough of those bounces are now hitting resistance of one sort or the other. Confirmation won't come this week, so we certainly should not become complacent. There is, however, one thing we can do...
|Filter THIS! …is a pre-open missive that tells you one thing, the most important thing, if you had to filter your view of today's marijuana stocks price action through just one thing -- okay, sometimes two -- what would that one thing be?|