The Weekly Top 10
1) If you want to maximize your investment returns, spending a lot of time trying to figure out when the next recession is coming is a not good use of your time. We can still have serious corrections without a recession...and we can (and do) still see major turns in individual stocks & groups without a recession. Besides, the best indicator for an upcoming recession is the stock market itself....For more on this issue and to receive what many of the most successful institutional investors read on a daily basis, please click here to subscribe to my premium news letter.
2) The economy is good, but NOT great…and earnings growth is grinding to a halt. Therefore, it’s hard to come up with a scenario where a stock market that is already up more than 16% YTD can rally in a substantial way from current levels. This is particularly true given
3) The Trade War is going to be with us for a while. The U.S. has changed its foreign policy from a "War on Terror" to an "Economic War with China."...and China is not going to give-in on the Trump administration's most important demands. Therefore, the uncertainty that corporate America faces today will be with us for a very long time. For more on this issue, please click here to subscribe to my premium news letter.
4) Some interesting new bets in the options market. Much like we saw at the end of July (just before the stock market took a dive), we've seen some more significant bearish bets being made in the options market last week. For more on this issue, please click here to subscribe to my premium news letter.
5) The three most important leadership groups bounced-off key support levels last week. To see the charts on these groups...and learn why it will be vitally important that they hold over the coming days & weeks, please click here to subscribe to my premium news letter.
5a) The near-term support/resistance levels in the S&P are still well defined. To see the updated chart on the S&P 500 Index and which levels I'm watching so closely, please click here to subscribe to my premium news letter.
6) I do not think a September rate-cut is a lock. The comments from the Fed over the past two weeks have been more hawkish than the consensus seems to understand. Also Fed Chairman Powell's recent comments were not as dovish as many have portrayed. Therefore, the current 100% chance of a rate cut being priced-in is wrong IMHO. For more on this issue, please click here to subscribe to my premium news letter.
6a) If I'm wrong, we’ll know for sure by next weekend. For more on this issue, please click here to subscribe to my premium news letter.
7) People continue to ignore the moves in the currency markets. There have been some important moves in the currency markets. None of them bode well for risk assets. The moves have come on the dollar/yuan cross, the broad DXY dollar index, and the euro/yen cross....For more on this issue and to see the charts on these important developments in the currency market, please click here to subscribe to my premium news letter.
8) 1998 is a lousy example for the bulls to use to defend their arguments. Pundits keep trying to tell us that the mild inversion of the yield curve in 1998 is a reason to believe the recent inversion is a benign event. THAT IS RIDICULOUS. To find out why this is a horrible argument and to receive what many of the most successful institutional investors read on a daily basis, please click here to subscribe to my premium news letter.
9) Bitcoin is testing a critically important support level. Therefore, any further decline for the cryptocurrency will be very bearish on a technical basis. To see the charts on Bitcoin, please click here to subscribe to my premium news letter.
9a) Gold has shifted to
10) Summary of our current stance. My cautious stance on the stock market has not changed…because the situation has not changed much in my mind....The economic growth and earnings growth are slowing and the ongoing Trade War will continue to be headwinds for these fundamental factors. We're also seeing warning signals in the currency markets. With so many different potential catalysts for another decline we believe investors should raise cash...so that they can take advantage of a 10%+ correction. For more on all of these issues, please click here to subscribe to my premium news letter.
Matthew J. Maley
Chief Market Strategist
Miller Tabak + Co., LLC
275 Grove St. Suite 2-400
Newton, MA 02466
Although the information contained in this report (not including disclosures contained herein) has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, the accuracy and completeness of such information and the opinions expressed herein cannot be guaranteed. This report is for informational purposes only and under no circumstances is it to be construed as an offer to sell, or a solicitation to buy, any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be appropriate for all investors. Trading options is not suitable for all investors and may involve risk of loss. Additional information is available upon request or by contacting us at Miller Tabak + Co., LLC, 200 Park Ave. Suite 1700, New York, NY 10166.