The Weekly Top 10: Some Big Bearish Bets in the Options Market


1) Another great week for stocks, but the S&P is still at risk of “failing” at this level (once again). Although one leadership group has been able to play catch-up, three other important ones have not. Therefore, the key resistance level on the S&P we've been harping on recently is still critically important. Click here to subscribe to my premium newsletter and get the details on this groups and the critical level for the S&P 500.

2) Despite what some pundits say, this earnings season has not been anything special at all. Yes, a lot of specific high profile stocks reported great earnings & guidance, but if anything, forward guidance continues to decline for the S&P 500 companies.

3, 3a, 3b) We’ve seen a very large number of bearish bets recently in the options market recently. Experience tells me that this is almost always followed by a meaningful decline in the stock market over the short/intermediate-term. To find out more details on what could be the most important development of the summer, click here to subscribe to my premium newsletter!

4) Although some key groups continue to lag, one has been able to play catch up. It's getting overbought, so there's no guarantee that it will breakout in a significant way. Therefore, it's action over the next week or two is going to be very important for the broad stock market.

5) There is WAY too much complacency around about big tech regulation. It’s coming!....Recent actions by Facebook has raised the odds that the government will crackdown on "big tech. Also, the government has just done signaled that they are going to move beyond just "jawboning " about this issue.

6) “How could people be so stupid?”....This is what people are going to ask in a few years when they look back at 2019...and the action in Beyond Meat and European junk bonds.

7) Bitcoin is another asset that stands at a critical juncture on a technical basis. When I use the term, "critical juncture," I'm saying that it could go in either direction...but when it breaks either its key support or its key resistance levels, the move is going to accelerate in a major way. Click here for details on the all-important technical picture for Bitcoin, by subscribing to my premium newsletter!

8) The yield curve is showing signs that it just might reverse. Despite all the talk about the flat/inverted yield curve, it has actually been flattening out for many months now. It needs to start steepening before we can get too exited about this potential, but it's something few people are focusing on.

8a). If the curve does steepen, it's going to impact several groups. We're watching the banks. The KBE bank ETF has already broken one key resistance level. If it can break the second (more important) one, it's going to be very bullish for the banks. To find out more about the important technical level we're watching, click here to subscribe to my premium newsletter.

9, 9a, 9b) TSLA looks absolutely horrible on the charts....This closely followed stock has done something it hasn't done in over six years...and it's not good for the stock on a technical basis at all. To find out why Tesla is in big trouble, click here to subscribe to my newsletter.

10) Summary of our current stance....I have become more constructive on the broad stock market, BUT I have not turned outright bullish (like I did in late December of last year...or I did on a short-term basis in early June).....I'm just too concerned about a new development in the options market. It's the kind of development that is almost always followed by a meaningful decline. Therefore, the stock market is still at a critical juncture, so we'll have to see how the market acts after the Fed's announcement on rates next week. Click here to subscribe to may premium newsletter. It includes both a "short version" and a "long version" for each well as various charts pertaining to these points. That way, you can see why I've been able to make so many great calls on individual stocks, groups and asset classes at key turning points over the past decade.

Matthew J. Maley

Managing Director

Chief Market Strategist

Miller Tabak + Co., LLC


275 Grove St. Suite 2-400

Newton, MA 02466


Although the information contained in this report (not including disclosures contained herein) has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, the accuracy and completeness of such information and the opinions expressed herein cannot be guaranteed. This report is for informational purposes only and under no circumstances is it to be construed as an offer to sell, or a solicitation to buy, any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be appropriate for all investors. Trading options is not suitable for all investors and may involve risk of loss. Additional information is available upon request or by contacting us at Miller Tabak + Co., LLC, 200 Park Ave. Suite 1700, New York, NY 10166.

Posted to The Maley Report on Jul 28, 2019 — 4:07 PM
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