Five short days ago, the S&P 500 hit a new all-time high at 1987.98. The move appeared to be a breakout, albeit a modest one, from the recent range. And a great many analysts - particularly those possessing the rose-tinted Revo's - professed that 2000 was the next stop for the venerable market index.

However, the "breakout" turned out to be yet another in a long string of "fakeouts," in which the index in question quickly reverses and dives right back down into trading range. And in this case, the market has largely moved lower ever since.

To be sure, a "breakout fakeout" does not, in and of itself, represent a problem for the bulls. However, consider that this "pop and drop" action has become a bit of a trend in 2014 as the initial moves higher out of a range just don't seem to stick.

S&P 500 Daily

In other words, most of the breakouts are weak and quickly reversed. This suggests that the bull case may indeed be losing steam and just might be yet another reason to play the game a bit more conservatively right now.

Next Up: Technical Divergences

Along these lines, another reason to be cautious in here is the action on the charts. In short, the charts of the major indices have not been singing the same happy tune for some time now. So, another in our long list of reasons to perhaps consider some caution in this market is a little something called a technical divergence.

We've spent a fair amount of time on this subject over the last month or so. But what follows is a text-book example of technical divergences amongst the major stock market indices and thus, is worth revisiting.

Here is the way the game is played. First take a look at a chart of the S&P 500 above and NASDAQ 100 (aka the NDX) below. Note that the move since mid-April has been quite strong and one-directional. In short, this is what an uptrend looks like.

NASDAQ 100 Daily

Now take a peek at the IWM, which is the ETF designed to mirror the Russell 2000 small cap index. Note that while the NDX has been moving up since the beginning of July, the IWM has been moving in the opposite direction. Thus, there is a divergence between the two trends.

iShares Russell 2000 ETF Daily (IWM)

It is important to note that the Russell isn't the only index diverging from the S&P as the chart of the Midcap index displays similar action. Such divergences can and oftentimes are "fixed" via a good, strong rally. However, if they persist, the fact that the major indices are not in sync is a sign of trouble.

Then There is the Action in the High Yields

Another sign of potential trouble in the stock market right now is the action in the junk bond market.

Some folks refer to high yield or junk bonds (so named due to the credit ratings of the companies issuing the bonds) as "stocks in drag" due to the fact that the high yield market tends to trade in line with the stock market.

While junk bonds traditionally trade based on credit risk - the risk that the bond issuer will default - there is also some interest rate risk involved. So, if the price action in junk starts to go the wrong direction, it is a sign that either credit risk is becoming a problem or that rates may be rising.

And as the chart below clearly illustrates, there is a problem in junk these days.

SPDR High Yield Bond ETF Daily (JNK)

This time around though, there may be another rational reason explaining why high yields are struggling.

Normally, the spread between yields of junk bonds and government bonds is fairly wide. However, given that investors seeking to produce income in their portfolios have few options these days, the buying binge in high yields has caused that spread to reach a record low. This appears to have been a signal to those who trade in the junk market that it might be time to pack up and get out of Dodge.

Regardless of the reason, the breakdown in high yield bonds is something to take note of and may be yet another reason to avoid being complacent about the stock market these days.

... And the Readings of our Market Environment Models

To be successful in the stock market game over a long period of time, it is critical to stay in tune with the big-picture environment. The thinking here is simple. Using the same pedal-to-the-metal approach that tends to produce strong gains in a positive market environment is likely to prove problematic when the bears come to call. Therefore, it is a good idea to utilize different strategies in different environments.

The first step toward long-term success is to identify the type of environment you are dealing with. And it is for this reason that we have developed Market Environment Models, which unemotionally dictate the type of strategy that should be used at any given time.

While it may sound simplistic, in a strong bull market, the readings of our Market Environment Models tend to also be strong. However, it is worth noting that this is simply NOT the case right now.

No, while the S&P is just 4 days removed from an all-time high, our shorter-term Market Environment Model is currently neutral. In addition, the intermediate-term model, while positive, is so by the smallest of margins. And the bottom line is this just doesn't happen in a strong market.

So, while a strong pop higher could certainly rectify the situation, the current price action, the technical divergences, the action in junk, and the readings of our models tell us to stay alert and be ready to take defensive action when needed.

Coming Up... Some of the other reasons that it might pay to be cautious include: The levels of speculation, sentiment readings, public and private exposure levels, valuations, the return of the politicians, Europe's economy, streaks, and the VIX...

Turning To This Morning

Argentina has technically defaulted on debt payments for the second time in 13 years. Although the payments were due to hedge funds in a complex deal spanning years, concerns about contagion appear to running rampant this morning. In addition, Europe worries have also returned as traders fret about a return of deflation. Thus, European markets are down hard and U.S. futures are following suit.

Pre-Game Indicators

Here are the Pre-Market indicators we review each morning before the opening bell...

Major Foreign Markets:
    - Japan: -0.16%
    - Hong Kong: +0.10%
    - Shanghai: +0.95%
    - London: -0.30%
    - Germany: -1.18%
    - France: -1.12%
    - Italy: -1.54%
    - Spain: -1.92%

Crude Oil Futures: -$0.60 to $99.60

Gold: -$0.90 at $1294.00

Dollar: lower against the yen, higher vs. euro and pound.

10-Year Bond Yield: Currently trading at 2.568%

Stock Futures Ahead of Open in U.S. (relative to fair value):
- S&P 500: -8.72
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: -72
- NASDAQ Composite: -22.13

Thought For The Day:

The truth does not cease to exist when it is ignored...

Current Market Drivers

We strive to identify the driving forces behind the market action on a daily basis. The thinking is that if we can both identify and understand why stocks are doing what they are doing on a short-term basis; we are not likely to be surprised/blind-sided by a big move. Listed below are what we believe to be the driving forces of the current market (Listed in order of importance).

      1. The State of the Geopolitical 'Issues'
      2. The State of Fed/ECB Policy
      3. The Level of Interest Rates
      4. The Outlook for U.S. Economic Growth

The State of the Trend

We believe it is important to analyze the market using multiple time-frames. We define short-term as 3 days to 3 weeks, intermediate-term as 3 weeks to 3 months, and long-term as 3 months or more. Below are our current ratings of the three primary trends:

Short-Term Trend: Neutral
(Chart below is S&P 500 daily over past 1 month)

Intermediate-Term Trend: Positive
(Chart below is S&P 500 daily over past 6 months)

Long-Term Trend: Positive
(Chart below is S&P 500 daily over past 12 months)

Key Technical Areas:

Traders as well as computerized algorithms are generally keenly aware of the important technical levels on the charts from a short-term basis. Below are the levels we deem important to watch today:

• Key Near-Term Support Zone(s) for S&P 500: 1955(ish)
• Key Near-Term Resistance Zone(s): 2000

The State of the Tape

Momentum indicators are designed to tell us about the technical health of a trend - I.E. if there is any "oomph" behind the move. Below are a handful of our favorite indicators relating to the market's "mo"...

Trend and Breadth Confirmation Indicator (Short-Term): Negative
Indicator Explained

Price Thrust Indicator: Negative
Indicator Explained

Volume Thrust Indicator: Negative
Indicator Explained

Breadth Thrust Indicator: Negative
Indicator Explained

Bull/Bear Volume Relationship: Moderately Positive
Indicator Explained

Technical Health of 100 Industry Groups: Neutral
Indicator Explained

The Early Warning Indicators

Markets travel in cycles. Thus we must constantly be on the lookout for changes in the direction of the trend. Looking at market sentiment and the overbought/sold conditions can provide "early warning signs" that a trend change may be near.

• S&P 500 Overbought/Oversold Conditions:
        - Short-Term: Neutral
        - Intermediate-Term: Moderately Overbought
  
• Market Sentiment: Our primary sentiment model is Negative .

The State of the Market Environment

One of the keys to long-term success in the stock market is stay in tune with the market's "big picture" environment in terms of risk versus reward.

Weekly State of the Market Model Reading: Moderately Positive
Indicator Explained

Looking For Guidance in the Markets?

The Daily Decision: If you want a disciplined approach to managing stock market risk on a daily basis - Check the "Daily Decision" System. Forget the fast money and the latest, greatest option trade. Investors first need is a strategy to keep them "in" the stock market during bull markets and on the sidelines (or short) during bear markets. The Daily Decision system was up 30.3% in 2012, is up more than 25% in 2013, and the system sports an average compound rate of return of more than 30% per year.

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The IRA/401K Advisor: Stop ignoring your 401K! Our long-term oriented service designed for IRAs and 401Ks strives to keep accounts positioned on the right side of the markets. This is a service you really can't afford not to use.

All StateoftheMarkets.com Premium Services include a 30-day money-back guarantee!

Wishing you green screens and all the best for a great day,

David D. Moenning
Founder and Chief Investment Strategist
StateoftheMarkets.com
President, Heritage Capital Research
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Positions in stocks mentioned: none

For up to the minute updates on the market's driving forces, Follow Me on Twitter: @StateDave (Twitter is the new Ticker Tape)

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The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are those of Mr. David Moenning and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning’s opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors of StateoftheMarkets.com and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. One should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.