Although the troubles with Portugal's Banco Espirito Santo were in focus late last week, the concerns appear to be fading fast. This morning global markets are rallying on hopes that ECB President Draghi will announce a 700 billion euro TLTRO program when he testifies before the European parliament today. Thus, Europe's stock markets are mostly higher in the early going.
Here at home, traders appear to be encouraged by the action in the overnight markets as well as earnings out of Citigroup (C), which came in ahead of expectations on both the top and bottom lines.
In economic news, it's another quiet calendar, but the data will pick up later in the week. Also note that Janet Yellen will provide her semi-annual testimony on Capitol Hill Tuesday and Wednesday.
U.S. stock futures are up nicely in the early going and point to gain of more than 90 points for the Dow at the open.
Although the headlines out of Portugal's Banco Espirito Santo may have reminded the bears of the bad old days of the European debt crisis, traders in the U.S. do not seem to be overly concerned at this stage. Exhibit A would be the action of the market on Thursday and Friday. Recall that stock market indices dove at the open on both days only to recover the vast majority of the losses by the close. And since the S&P 500 finished the week about where it was on Tuesday, we can conclude that there is no major worry about rate contagion in Europe at the present time. However, it is worth noting that our market environment model has started to sag and is currently moderately positive.
The tape action of the last couple days has been a bit confusing to say the least. There have been algo-induced dives at the open as well as strong rebounds throughout the remainder of the day. The end result for the S&P and DJIA hasn't been too bad. Granted, the pre-holiday breakouts are gone. However, the short-term trend can be rated no worse than neutral for both indices. However, the smallcap and midcap indices are in clear downtrends. And finally, the chart of the NASDAQ is somewhere in between. In short, the bulls can claim possession in the broad market while the bears still control the smaller issues. Thus, it appears to be "game on" and it is likely a very good idea to watch the chart action carefully in the coming days.
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Here are the Pre-Market indicators we review each morning before the opening bell...
Major Foreign Markets:
- Japan: +0.88%
- Hong Kong: +0.49%
- Shanghai: +0.98%
- London: +0.66%
- Germany: +0.82%
- France: +0.68%
- Italy: -0.15%
- Spain: +0.23%
Crude Oil Futures: -$0.16 to $100.67
Gold: -$1.90 at $1337.40
Dollar: lower against the yen and euro, higher vs. pound.
10-Year Bond Yield: Currently trading at 2.524%
Stock Futures Ahead of Open in U.S. (relative to fair value):
- S&P 500: +10.13
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: +93
- NASDAQ Composite: +18.62
We strive to identify the driving forces behind the market action on a daily basis. The thinking is that if we can both identify and understand why stocks are doing what they are doing on a short-term basis; we are not likely to be surprised/blind-sided by a big move. Listed below are what we believe to be the driving forces of the current market (Listed in order of importance).
1. The Outlook for U.S. Economic Growth
2. The State of Fed/ECB Policy
3. The State of the Earnings Season
4. The State of the Geopolitical 'Issues' in Ukraine, Iraq, and Gaza
We believe it is important to analyze the market using multiple time-frames. We define short-term as 3 days to 3 weeks, intermediate-term as 3 weeks to 3 months, and long-term as 3 months or more. Below are our current ratings of the three primary trends:
Short-Term Trend: Neutral
(Chart below is S&P 500 daily over past 1 month)
Intermediate-Term Trend: Positive
(Chart below is S&P 500 daily over past 6 months)
Long-Term Trend: Positive
(Chart below is S&P 500 daily over past 12 months)
Key Technical Areas:
Traders as well as computerized algorithms are generally keenly aware of the important technical levels on the charts from a short-term basis. Below are the levels we deem important to watch today:
Momentum indicators are designed to tell us about the technical health of a trend - I.E. if there is any "oomph" behind the move. Below are a handful of our favorite indicators relating to the market's "mo"...
Markets travel in cycles. Thus we must constantly be on the lookout for changes in the direction of the trend. Looking at market sentiment and the overbought/sold conditions can provide "early warning signs" that a trend change may be near.
One of the keys to long-term success in the stock market is stay in tune with the market's "big picture" environment in terms of risk versus reward because different market environments require different investing strategies. To help us identify the current environment, we look to our longer-term State of the Market Model. This model is designed to tell us when risk factors are high, low, or uncertain. In short, this longer-term oriented, weekly model tells us whether the odds favor the bulls, bears, or neither team.
Weekly State of the Market Model Reading: Moderately Positive
Remember that it pays to be open minded (in more ways than one)...
Wishing you green screens and all the best for a great day,
David D. Moenning
Founder, StateoftheMarkets.com
President, Chief Investment Officer Heritage Capital Management
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